Will martial law in Ukraine be lifted by December 31, 2026?

The issue of lifting martial law in Ukraine remains one of the central elements of domestic political and security discussions amid the ongoing full-scale war. Martial law was introduced in 2022 and has since been repeatedly extended by decisions of the Verkhovna Rada based on presidential decrees.

In recent months, Ukrainian officials, members of parliament, representatives of the Central Election Commission, and policy experts have publicly commented on the potential conditions for its termination. Among the factors mentioned in the public space are the cessation of active hostilities, security guarantees, stabilization of the frontline situation, and the creation of conditions necessary for holding elections in accordance with the Constitution and laws of Ukraine.

At the same time, current legislation clearly regulates the procedure for introducing and terminating martial law, as well as the legal restrictions that apply during this period, including limitations related to elections and certain civil procedures. The question of its possible cancellation is directly linked to both the military-political situation and formal decisions by the highest state authorities.

This market allows participants to assess the probability of whether martial law in Ukraine will be officially lifted by December 31, 2026, taking into account developments in the security environment, political decisions, and public statements by authorized officials.

Conditions for resolving as “Yes”

“Lifting martial law” means:

• issuance of an official decree by the President of Ukraine terminating martial law, and
• adoption and entry into force of the legally required decision under Ukrainian law, and
• official publication of the termination in accordance with established procedures.

Conditions for resolving as “No”

The market resolves as “No” if:

• martial law remains in force as of December 31, 2026 at 23:59 Kyiv time, or
• martial law is extended for a new term, or
• public statements about intentions to lift martial law are made without the formal legal termination taking effect.

1. Format of the decision

The political context or circumstances of the decision do not affect the outcome, provided that martial law is formally terminated in accordance with Ukrainian legislation.

Martial law may be lifted:

• following the end of active hostilities,
• as part of a political decision,
• within broader agreements or settlements.

2. Partial changes

Partial easing of restrictions or amendments to specific provisions do not constitute lifting martial law if the legal regime of martial law remains in force.

3. Legal status

The decisive factor is the official legal status of martial law.

If martial law remains legally in force at 23:59 Kyiv time on December 31, 2026, the market resolves as “No”.

4. Sources

The outcome is determined based on:

• official decrees of the President of Ukraine — https://www.president.gov.ua/
• laws and resolutions of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine — https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/
• and/or official publications by other authorized state bodies of Ukraine.

5. Deadline and resolution

The market closes

The market will be resolved as soon as the outcome can be determined, and no later than January 1, 2027 at 23:59 Kyiv time, if not resolved earlier.