Will Vladimir Putin be removed from power as President of Russia before December 31, 2026?

The presidency of Russia plays a central role in the country’s political system, domestic governance, foreign policy, and military strategy. Changes in leadership can significantly affect geopolitical stability, international relations, economic sanctions, and global market sentiment.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine and the subsequent escalation of tensions between Russia and Western countries, questions surrounding political stability in Russia have remained a subject of global attention. Leadership continuity or disruption may have wide-ranging consequences for regional security, energy markets, and diplomatic negotiations.

Removal from power may occur through resignation, formal dismissal, legal incapacity, detention, death, or other official loss of presidential authority.

This market allows participants to assess the probability that Vladimir Putin will cease to hold or exercise the powers of the President of Russia before December 31, 2026.

Conditions for resolving as “Yes”

The market resolves as “Yes” if:

• Vladimir Putin formally resigns from the office of President of Russia, or
• he is officially removed from office, or
• he is legally declared unable to perform presidential duties, or
• he is detained or otherwise prevented from exercising presidential authority, or
• he dies,

• the event occurs on or before December 31, 2026 at 23:59 (UTC+0).

Conditions for resolving as “No”

The market resolves as “No” if:

• Vladimir Putin continues to formally hold and exercise presidential authority through December 31, 2026 at 23:59 (UTC+0), or
• no official confirmation of removal occurs within the timeframe.

1. Definition of removal

“Removed from power” refers strictly to:

• official loss of presidential status, or
• official transfer or termination of presidential authority.

Temporary absences, rumors, media speculation, or unofficial claims do not qualify.

2. Source of resolution

The outcome is determined based on:

• official government announcements, and/or
• confirmation by at least two internationally recognized news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Financial Times).

If official information is delayed or ambiguous, resolution may be postponed until sufficient confirmation is available.

3. Deadline and resolution timing

The market closes

The market will be resolved as soon as sufficient official confirmation allows determination, and no later than January 3, 2027 at 23:59 (UTC+0), if not resolved earlier.