Will USD/UAH exceed 45.00 before August 31, 2026?

The USD/UAH exchange rate remains one of the most closely watched macroeconomic indicators in Ukraine, reflecting inflation dynamics, monetary policy decisions, foreign aid flows, trade balance conditions, and overall economic stability. Movements in the official exchange rate can influence consumer prices, business planning, government budgeting, and investor sentiment.

In recent months, the hryvnia has experienced gradual fluctuations amid ongoing war-related pressures, international financial support programs, and central bank policy measures. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) continues to manage currency stability while responding to domestic and external economic risks.

The level of 45.00 UAH per USD represents a significant psychological and economic threshold. Crossing this level could signal increased currency pressure, shifts in macroeconomic expectations, or changes in market sentiment.

This market allows participants to assess the probability that the official USD/UAH exchange rate published by the National Bank of Ukraine will exceed 45.00 before August 31, 2026.

Conditions for resolving as “Yes”

The market resolves as “Yes” if:

• the official daily exchange rate USD/UAH published by the National Bank of Ukraine is strictly greater than 45.00, and
• the rate is published on or before August 31, 2026.

Conditions for resolving as “No”

The market resolves as “No” if:

• the official USD/UAH exchange rate never exceeds 45.00 on or before August 31, 2026, or
• the rate reaches exactly 45.00 but does not exceed it.

1. Rate definition

The exchange rate refers exclusively to:

• the official daily USD/UAH rate published by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU).

Intraday market rates, cash exchange rates, interbank rates, or unofficial sources do not affect the outcome.

2. Threshold interpretation

“Exceeds 45.00” means:

• any official rate strictly greater than 45.00 (e.g., 45.01 or higher).

A rate equal to 45.00 does not qualify as exceeding.

3. Source

The outcome is determined based on:

• official data published by the National Bank of Ukraine — https://bank.gov.ua/

If the official website structure changes, archived or officially mirrored data may be used.

4. Deadline and resolution

The market closes

The market will be resolved as soon as the official rate data allows determination, and no later than September 2, 2026 at 23:59 Kyiv time, if not resolved earlier.